Ottawa wants Canadians driving electric cars and heating with electric heat pumps. The real test is the coldest night of the year, when everyone needs heat at once and the wind and sun aren’t helping.

Canada’s grid peaks in the dead of winter

In most of Canada, electricity demand is highest in winter. On February 3, 2023, with −48 °C in Québec City, Hydro-Québec hit an all-time peak of about 43,124 MW. The utility says Quebec uses nearly twice as much electricity in winter as in summer, and that heating can make up 80 per cent of a home’s use on cold days.

Heat pumps add to the strain at the worst moment. Natural Resources Canada notes that most air-source heat pumps stop working below a minimum temperature, roughly −15 °C to −25 °C for newer models, and a backup system must take over. In a home with no furnace, that backup is electric too.

Ontario’s grid operator, the IESO, forecasts that demand will grow 65 per cent by 2050, with the winter peak catching up to the summer peak as heating goes electric.

What happened in Alberta in January 2024

Alberta got a real-world test during a week-long cold snap below −40 °C. According to the Market Surveillance Administrator (MSA):

  • Demand set a record of 12,384 MW on January 11.
  • Wind output then fell from about 1,350 MW to almost nothing and was very low throughout January 13.
  • The tightest hours came after sunset, so solar produced nothing.
  • Several thermal plants were already offline or broke down in the cold.
  • Imports were limited because British Columbia and the U.S. Northwest were just as cold.

At 6:44 p.m. on January 13, an emergency alert went to phones across the province, warning of “a high risk of rotating power outages.” For six minutes, all of the grid’s contingency reserves were being used to supply power. Demand fell by about 350 MW over the next hour, and no rotating outages were needed.

Thermal plants failed too, so the lesson isn’t about one fuel: a winter grid needs a wide margin of firm power that can be dispatched whatever the weather. Adding EV charging and electric heat to that same evening peak shrinks the margin unless firm supply is built first.

How much more grid would electrification need?

A lot. In the Canada Energy Regulator’s net-zero scenarios, electricity use more than doubles between 2021 and 2050. Ottawa’s May 2026 electricity strategy, Powering Canada Strong, also expects demand to double by 2050 and, citing the regulator, puts the cost of expanding and modernizing the system at more than $1 trillion.

In Quebec alone, Hydro-Québec says it needs 8,000 to 9,000 MW of new capacity by 2035, at a total plan cost of $155 billion to $185 billion, and roughly double today’s supply by 2050.

The regulator’s scenarios lean heavily on wind, which grows about ninefold in one of them. But a grid must be built for the coldest, darkest, stillest night, so every wind farm needs firm backup for that night. Ratepayers end up paying for two systems.

Where federal policy stands in late 2026

The Clean Electricity Regulations, finalized in December 2024, cap carbon dioxide from almost all grid-connected fossil-fuel units of 25 MW or more starting in 2035. Each unit’s annual limit is based on 65 tonnes of CO₂ per gigawatt-hour of capacity, falling to zero in 2050. The official text, current to September 30, 2026, has not been amended since January 1, 2025. But the rules are being loosened:

  • Alberta: Under the November 2025 Canada–Alberta memorandum of understanding, Ottawa suspended the regulations in Alberta. An implementation agreement announced May 15, 2026, keeps them in abeyance while Alberta’s constitutional challenge proceeds; if the courts strike them down, Ottawa has agreed to repeal them. The Alberta Court of Appeal was scheduled to hear the case in fall 2026.
  • Everywhere else: Powering Canada Strong says Ottawa intends to adjust the regulations to allow more carbon offsets, more flexibility for existing plants and more room for new units in the near term, while keeping the 2050 net-zero goal. These changes are still subject to consultation.

The realistic options: gas, hydro and nuclear

Ottawa’s own strategy now says natural gas will play “an essential role in maintaining affordability, reliability, and system flexibility.” Gas plants can be dispatched on demand, and the MSA found that gas supply was not a cause of Alberta’s January 2024 shortfall.

Hydro with large reservoirs is Canada’s great advantage, because stored water is there on the coldest night. New dams and the long transmission lines they need, however, take many years to build.

Nuclear runs around the clock. Ontario Power Generation is building the first of four BWRX-300 small modular reactors at Darlington, totalling 1,200 MW. It received its construction licence in April 2025, and the first unit is scheduled to connect to the grid by the end of 2030. It isn’t cheap: the budget is $20.9 billion, with the first unit alone at $6.1 billion.

So, can the grid handle EVs and heat pumps at −40? Not today’s grid, and not one built mainly on weather-dependent power. Keeping Canadians warm on the coldest night means planning for that night, building firm power and being honest about the cost.

References

  1. Market Surveillance Administrator, “Alberta electricity system events on January 13 and April 5, 2024: MSA review and recommendations” (August 6, 2024)
  2. Hydro-Québec, “What happens when electricity use exceeds the grid’s capacity?”
  3. Natural Resources Canada, “Heating and Cooling With a Heat Pump”
  4. Independent Electricity System Operator, 2026 Annual Planning Outlook presentation (April 21, 2026)
  5. Canada Energy Regulator, Canada’s Energy Future 2023, executive summary
  6. Natural Resources Canada, Powering Canada Strong: A National Strategy for an Electrified Canadian Economy (May 2026)
  7. Hydro-Québec, “Hydro-Québec’s plan to decarbonize the economy, contribute to Québec’s prosperity and meet customer expectations” (November 2, 2023)
  8. Justice Laws Website, Clean Electricity Regulations (SOR/2024-263), section 9
  9. Government of Canada, “Clean electricity”
  10. Prime Minister of Canada, “Canada-Alberta Memorandum of Understanding” (November 27, 2025)
  11. Torys LLP, “A carbon and crude compromise: Canada-Alberta agreement on oil pipeline, pathways and carbon pricing” (May 19, 2026)
  12. Climate Case Chart, Reference re Clean Electricity Regulations
  13. American Nuclear Society, “North American construction is back—smaller and faster—at OPG’s Darlington” (June 5, 2026)